The USA Racing System

Introduction

Whilst UK & Irish racing was in lockdown I looked at ways in which to profit from the markets that were still in operation, both to keep me busy during lockdown and to make a nice profit to boot!

One such market was American racing and to my surprise there was indeed a few consistent angles to gain an edge. One was Dutching two selections, in certain races, of a stipulated field size.

Prolonged market observation is one of the keys to mastering new markets

I have studied US racing for a long time so after this lengthy market observation and also speed reading 1,000s of past USA racing results, I picked up many a golden edge by constantly spotting repeated patterns that if followed consistently would deliver a really nice edge.

Far from being reverse engineered, these patterns, when followed in real time, repeated themselves time and time again to deliver, so long as I kept within certain entry criteria.

Having said that, the handful of angles that I tested in real time over a decade ago, while they proved profitable they also suffered from lack of liquidity.

Frustratingly there was very little money in the foreign racing markets in general way back then apart from big races like the Arc De Triumph, Kentucky Derby and Melbourne Cup to name but a few.

Lack of liquidity in any market can be a big danger as it leads to large price gapping between the back and lay side as backers would request unrealistic back prices and likewise on the Lay side. In other words, it was far from an efficient market.

Nowadays all this has changed with liquidity on each US race around the £50,000 – £200,000 mark making it viable to now get a decent bet matched.

So now let’s move onto the rules…

RULES:

American racing usually starts around 17.30GMT and some start at 19.15GMT depending time zones and on what state is hosting the racing on any given day.

1). Head over to Betfair’s EXCHANGE portal and click on ‘Horse Racing’ – Todays Card’. Next scroll through and look for the American races denoted by (US) in brackets as shown below.

2). Note down all races with 6 – 9 runners and have a favourite priced at 2.50 – 3.00 at around 15 minutes before the race off time as this one below.

3). After noting the price of the favourite at 15 minutes before the off we next revisit the same race at 5 minutes before the off to check whether the price has reduced or increased?

4). As you can see above the favourite ‘Hot Mist’ at 15 minutes before the off was 2.70. Then 5 minutes before the race starts you can see it has reduced to 2.62 as below.

5). As the price has reduced we scratch the race and move on to evaluate the next race. If however the price has drifted then we move on to Step 6 below.

6). Now if the favourite has DRIFTED out from 15 minutes before the off and is STILL favourite at 5 minutes before the off we now look to BACK the NEXT TWO in the betting for ‘1 point each.

Please Note: Don’t worry if the favourite has drifted out past 3.0, so long as it’s still favourite 5 minutes before the off then we dutch the next two in the betting based on price. In short, we back the 2nd and 3rd favourites for ‘1 point each.

Here’s a full example below

Next screenshot taken 5 minutes before the race off time…

Please note: You will notice that sometimes the runners are not listed in sequential price order meaning the 3rd favourite in this instance is actually listed in 6th place so be careful.

What happens when the price of the favourite stays the same in both timeframes?

Next screenshot 5 minutes before race off

Watch me doing it live:

 

Here’s a video example of how’s it’s done:

Now we rejoin at 5 minutes before the off:

 

Advised Staking & Betting Bank…

Start with a betting bank of 50 points. For example; start small let’s say £2 per point.

So 1 point will be £2.00 and therefore your bank would be 50pts x £2.00 = £100.

As we back 1 point on two selections your total bet would be £4.00 (£2 on each selection).

When you have a losing race you would stay on the same stake for the next race. We don’t chase losses. You can however double your unit stake when you bank doubles.

Tools & Resources

USA Racing is all about getting the best prices and the results and prices I show further on are all at industry SP (Starting Price). However much better prices can be obtained using the exchanges. Most users main port of call would be the Betfair Exchange/Horse Racing markets. However, you can also use: www.matchbook.com who offer the lowest commission of all exchanges at 1.5% on all horse racing. This will make a huge difference to cumulative long-term profits. See below.

Also Smarkets.com offer a lower commission than Betfair at 2% and sometimes they have zero commission on certain race specials. This can make an enormous difference to long term profits and there is plenty of liquidity to get your bets matched even on smaller races so Smarkets are perfectly fine to use.

Also try Betdaq who list most of the American race markets even on days when Betfair may only list one. They also offer 2% commission and also have decent liquidity in the markets. So, plenty of choice and all will offer free cash to sign up so worth a look! Here are the full website details;

www.betfair.com/exchanges
www.matchbook.com
www.betdaq.com
www.smarkets.com

You can also download all these exchanges from the Google and Apple App store and download them to your smartphone.

Please Note: As I write Betfair have just started a ‘You’re In Control’ promotion where they offer you three options.

1. Take free bets and have 8% commission on all winning bets
2. A few free bets and free spins on Arcade etc and 5% commission on all winning bets
3. No free bets or none of that free spin nonsense to tempt you to play the slots but on the upside a 2% winning commission charge.

No prize for guessing what I opted for. This one below:

Yes 2% commission and no free bets etc, you will make far more long term! But as ever it’s up to you.

Conclusion…

Above you have a nice and simple angle to help you profit from American racing. For best results try it on the earliest American meeting of the day that normally starts at between 17.30 – 19.15 GMT.

Start small at first and get used to the monthly Win/Lose pattern that organically develops over time. You can then start to move up the staking ladder in a steady and controlled manner.

Don’t forget you can use this all year round or when UK & Irish racing is cancelled for whatever reason.

Support…

If you have any betting-related questions, then please contact:
Adk.publishing@yahoo.co.uk

For everything else please contact Customer Services on info@canonburypublishing.com or call 0203 053 9868.